A recent survey of Iowa voters conducted October 28–31 shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44%, which sent shockwaves through the country. Neither campaign thought it possible that Trump would lose Iowa, which voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 after going for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. A September poll from the same group showed Trump with a 4-point lead. What has happened in the month between the two polls should alarm Republicans as some of those things appear to be trending in other states like swing state Wisconsin.
In Iowa, women are out-registering men by double-digits over previous elections, and the issue driving them to vote is control over their bodies and not being told what to do by a misogynist, “whether the women like it or not.” In addition to the large numbers of women registering in Iowa, young women have been registering at the University of Wisconsin locations at a record pace, waiting in line for up to 4 hours to be able to vote against Trump.
The signals have been clear since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade with the Dobbs decision in June 2022. The reaction was instant with millions of women protesting in the streets at the time. Republicans may have hoped passions would die down eventually but in every election since, when given a chance, women voted against restrictive abortion laws and demanded the rights back that were taken away.
Republicans kept shooting themselves in the foot, passing more and more restrictive laws to the point where women are actually dying when unable to receive emergency health care that might be considered an abortion. Some states offer few or no exceptions for the life of the mother unless the fetus is dead. Women and some men understand the possible implications for their female relatives of childbearing years. Young women know what it means for them and are coming out to vote in numbers not seen before.
Donald Trump may not lose Iowa, a state he won by 8.2 percentage points in 2020. But all it takes for Harris to win in the electoral college is to do as well or better than Biden in the states he won when defeating Trump then. In each of the swing states, women are showing up and polls suggest a wider gap for Harris than has existed in any other election.
The direction has been deflected toward Black men under 50, who will still vote for Harris more than any other group besides Black women. Singling out Black men is a distraction. In this election, women will make the difference and are surging toward Kamala Harris.
This Iowa poll is telling us that the election won’t be as close as predicted if states not considered in play might vote for Harris. Imagine what the states will do where Harris/Walz have expended their formidable resources. It will be Harris in a blowout if the canary is right.
This post originally appeared on Medium and is edited and republished with author's permission. Read more of William Spivey's work on Medium. And if you dig his words, buy the man a coffee.