Pope Francis, the 266th occupant of the throne of St. Peter, has died after an extended respiratory illness. He was 88 years old. It may seem too soon to talk about his likely successor, but in approximately three weeks, the College of Cardinals will meet at the Sistine Chapel to choose a new Pope in a conclave. The rules of the conclave, as of 22 January 2025, dictate that there are 138 electors of the 252 cardinals. Only those under the age of 80 may participate in the secret ballot.
In a highly secretive process, electors will put forth candidates until they reach a decision, notifying the world with the release of white smoke through the chimney leading outside. A representative from the College of Cardinals will read the Latin announcement “Habemus papam,” meaning “We have a pope”, from the main balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica overlooking thousands of people.
The Pope is theoretically apolitical, but to believe that is to deny the history of the institutions. Kings, Queens, Emperors, and Presidents have sought the favor of the Pope. King Henry II appointed his friend Thomas Becket as the Archbishop of Canterbury in hopes of obtaining a better relationship with the papacy. After an extended confrontation, Becket was murdered, but the Pope eventually got most of what he wanted in the Compromise of Avranches. Henry VIII could not bend the Pope to his will and was ultimately excommunicated. Henry responded by making himself the head of the Church of England.
The Catholic Church, headed by the Pope, has about 1.4 billion members, making it the largest Christian denomination. Pope Francis was often criticized from within the church as being “too woke.” Francis was known for his progressive stances on climate change, immigration, and LGBTQ+ inclusion. Many voting Cardinals are on record as favoring a return to former practices. They already don’t allow women to become Cardinals. While several Black African Cardinals control 18 electors, they will make little difference unless they can reach an agreement with the European bloc of 53 electors, overwhelming all other groups. Francis was the first non-European Pope since the Syrian Gregory III was ordained Pope in 731. There’s a great likelihood the next Pope will be European, therefore eliminating the African Cardinals. Names will be publicly floated, like Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea or Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, but they have no realistic chance of winning.
While many Cardinals align with some of the conservative views associated with MAGA. MAGA is hated around the world because of Trump’s tariffs, which is why no American Cardinal will be considered, and not one seemingly aligned with Trump’s campaign against the poor, as demonstrated by his cutting funding for USAID across the globe.
The next choice won’t be anyone who could be called a DEI choice, nor will they be MAGA. Look for a European, most likely from Italy, who will soon have world leaders calling on him, hoping to secure favor.
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