Kamala Harris was always going to win the popular vote, as has every Democratic Party presidential candidate since 2004. She’s been ahead in the national polls. The question has always been about seven swing states that pollsters keep telling us are essentially tied.
It’s also agreed that Donald Trump has a ceiling. He will never get over 46–47% of the vote and is as dependent on suppressing the vote and motivating his limited base as he is trying to expand the electorate.
The suggestion that Black male voters under fifty are moving to Trump in large numbers is false. Young Black men will vote more for Harris than any other demographic except for Black women. If Harris loses, it will be white men and white women who are to blame, not the small subsegment of Black men of a certain age.
In recent elections, swing states have not gone in opposite directions depending on how many visits they received from the candidate or what specific message was tailored to a state’s voters. They have all generally gone in the same direction, as happened in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.
What will give Harris the edge in state after state is the enthusiasm of Democratic voters, which is fading among Republicans, and the number of Republicans now voting for Harris or staying away. We’ve seen hundreds of Republican political figures publicly support Harris. Multiply that by all the people who haven’t publicly denounced Trump but will do so in the privacy of the ballot box or mail-in ballot.
Trump will be his own worst enemy among any undecided voters. He’s telling women he’ll do as he likes against their will and letting comments about Puerto Rico being a floating island of garbage stand. He's insulted nearly all ethnic minorities, women, Muslims, Jewish people, and some religions that cumulatively add up to well over two-thirds of the population.
I run the risk of looking foolish when the election results are available, but I’m sure Republican plans to overturn the result in multiple states for a particular reason. They see the same thing I do. I’m pretty sure there won’t be a concession call from Trump on November 5th when most results come in, but the margin will be large enough that we’ll know. I’m looking forward to reading and writing about the transition instead of how everything is within the margin of error.
This post originally appeared on Medium and is edited and republished with author's permission. Read more of William Spivey's work on Medium. And if you dig his words, buy the man a coffee.